Ebola? Not in my Backyard

Ebola is a very nasty virus. The current outbreak in West Africa has infected and killed more people than all previous outbreaks combined and the death toll is certain to rise further as governments and health services in the affected countries struggle to contain the spread of the disease. After months of warnings from the World Health Organisation there are signs that researchers and pharmaceutical companies in ‘the West’ have begun to stir themselves into action to provide a vaccine or a cure.

The reason for their inaction is clear: historically the virus has been confined to remote rural areas, it has been easily contained and it has caused few deaths. This time, major population centres are involved and there are no immediate signs that the spread of the disease is slowing down.

That, of course, is not the main reason why Western groups are now scrambling for a cure; they have known about the nature of this outbreak for some months. The motivating factor is fear that Ebola will spread via international travel to a major Western city and from there spread throughout the economically developed world. Ebola is a problem worth solving only when it looks like it might be lurking in our backyard.

In truth, Ebola is unlikely to present a huge threat to the populaces of London, New York, Sydney, Berlin or other affluent cities. The less virulent Lassa fever is endemic in West Africa and kills some 5,000 people each year but in thirty years there have been only eight ‘travel associated’ instances of it occurring in the UK, with no onward transmission to the wider population. Fear, however, is a powerful motivator and it is a combination of self-interest and fear that has finally caused us to do something about Ebola.

One of the most annoying things about the international reaction to Ebola is that it looks as if a cure might not be very difficult to find. As this type of virus spreads through the human population it tends to mutate and become less deadly and more susceptible to medical intervention. In the current outbreak the mortality rate is 55%; in some earlier, smaller outbreaks it was as high as 90%. If left to run its course naturally it would probably become like Lassa fever with a 5% mortality rate. Of course, to reach that level, many thousands would first of all have to become infected and die.

The disturbing thought that presses itself on my mind is this: if there was not a fear that it might spread to the West, would we simply have let this happen? My intuition suggests that this is precisely what would have occurred. After all, one European or American life is worth more than a thousand African lives; isn’t it?